Chicago’s poor population could grow by 253,000 if the nation’s unemployment rate reaches 9% this year.

From Crain's Chicago Business:

Chicago's poor population could grow by 253,000 if the nation's unemployment rate reaches 9% this year.

At the same time, the number of Illinois residents pushed into poverty could grow by more than 400,000, according to a report released Thursday by the Heartland Alliance Mid-America Institute on Poverty, a non-profit advocate for the poor.

The state's increase would be an "enormous jump" in the number of individuals living at or below the federally defined poverty level, said Amy Rynell, a co-author of the report. A family of four with an annual income at or below $22,050 is considered living in poverty.

The national unemployment rate was 8.5% in March, the latest figure available.

The report's authors used a pre-existing economic model to determine what kind of impact a 9% national unemployment rate would have on the number of poor in metropolitan Chicago and statewide. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release April's unemployment rate on May 8.

If the Heartland Alliance's state estimate is accurate, the more than 400,000 people who would be pushed into poverty would mark the largest two-year increase in the number of poor in the past 30 years. The group based its calculations on 2007 population data.

"This is a very predictable consequence of a bad economy," said David Merriman, professor of public administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "In general, there is a very strong correlation between unemployment and poverty."

The increase in the statewide and metro Chicago poor population probably won't be immediately evident, as there is a lag between rising unemployment and the time it takes for out-of-work individuals to exhaust jobless benefits.

The report authors did not have historical data for metro Chicago and therefore were unable to ascertain how the projected 253,000 increase compares to increases in previous years.

Still, the rise represents roughly 3% of the Chicago region's total population, and that is a figure that is sure to put additional strain on already-taxed social services. Food banks and homeless shelters already are seeing a higher number of visits.